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DNA Art

May 31st, 2007 | No Comments | Posted in cool schtuff, tech talk

I guess if the question is, “is this kid really mine?” – this is a creative way to make wall art out of the results.

The deal is – you get a little kit from the company, DNA11, and you swab the inside of your cheek (to get a DNA sample), mail it into them they run you DNA on a gel and photograph it and color process it onto a canvas and “voila” four weeks later you get a snapshot of your DNA fingerprint to hang on your wall.

B.T.W. – they also do actual fingerprint art, too.

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Cognitive Biases and You

I just read about these different cognitive biases during my lunch break. Geesh, because I don’t have enough flies on the windscreen, as it is. All I need is something else causing me to third and fourth or even fifth guess at every moment in parenting (“Is that my tendency to fall back on the Von Restorff Effect or does it really matter that his socks don’t match this morning?”). Here are some of my favorites (decision making and behavioral biases);

Deformation professionnelle - the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one’s own profession, forgetting any broader point of view.

Post-purchase rationalization – the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.

Mere exposure effect – the tendency for people to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them.

Von Restorff effect – the tendency for an item that “stands out like a sore thumb” to be more likely to be remembered than other items.

And of course, Biases of probability and belief;

Telescoping effect - the effect that recent events appear to have occurred more remotely and remote events appear to have occurred more recently.

Texas sharpshooter fallacy – the fallacy of selecting or adjusting a hypothesis after the data are collected, making it impossible to test the hypothesis fairly.

And of course;

Overconfidence effect – the tendency to overestimate one’s own abilities. (“I don’t need to read the directions to put this grill together, how hard could it be?”)

Ahh, and my favorite Social Biases;

Halo effect – the tendency for a person’s positive or negative traits to “spill over” from one area of their personality to another in others’ perceptions of them (see also physical attractiveness stereotype).

Forer effect (aka Barnum Effect) – the tendency to give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. For example, horoscopes.

Gee, this will certainly help me sort out those problems when my kids get into fights and I need to play the part of Judge and Jury. Actually, I think this slows the whole process for me – either that or I’ll just forget all about this stuff and go back to business as usual – but then again that’s the very definition of the Bias blind spot.

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Picture Perfect

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Reality Check | Spending v. Earning

May 25th, 2007 | No Comments | Posted in dad, life, what's going on??

Lately, my wife and I have noticed that our dollar isn’t stretching as much as it used too. As a dad, I worry about stuff like this all the live-long day. I worry because I have very little input (none, in fact) on how the prime rate will fluctuate throughout the year. Bernanke never calls me for my opinion. I never get included on those meetings that ultimately decide how the price of gas will change next week or supply restrictions from OPEC will be loosened.

I can only take comfort or actually – discomfort in the facts. I read the articles. I pay attention to the news. I pinch my pennies and my wife cuts coupons, and I love her for it. Here’s my latest scribblings on post-it pads and they are somewhat illuminating. These numbers are based on the three years we’ve lived here in sunny LA:

Price of Gas (average June 2004) = $2.25 /gallon
Price of Gas (now) = $3.55 /gallon
DIFFERENCE = 58% increase

Price of Disposable Diapers (Costco June 2004) = $29.99
Price of Disposable Diapers (Costco now) = $37.99
DIFFERENCE = 26.5% increase

Price of Whole Milk (June 2004) = $2.75/gallon
Price of Whole Milk (now) = $3.79/gallon
DIFFERENCE = 38% increase

Now I take that and look at my salary increase over the same period of time is approximately 10-12% increase. Wow.

Just for giggles, I took a snapshot of Exxon’s Financial Profit/Loss chart for the three years (to the day) as it’s reported on Yahoo Finance. I chose them since they have the most market capital ($467.5 billion to be exact) for the industry. Interesting, right? I was never a finance major in college but if I am reading this chart correctly, they are experiencing an 87% increase in their share price during the same three year period. Hmph.

Price of Exxon Share (May 23rd, 2004) = $43.82
Price of Exxon Share (now) = $82.28
DIFFERENCE = 87% increase

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And Now Our Moment of Zen…

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Affordable Original Art for Kids Rooms

May 24th, 2007 | No Comments | Posted in dad recomendation, fyi

THUMBTACK PRESS: So Hip It Hurts

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