I guess if the question is, “is this kid really mine?” - this is a creative way to make wall art out of the results.

The deal is - you get a little kit from the company, DNA11, and you swab the inside of your cheek (to get a DNA sample), mail it into them they run you DNA on a gel and photograph it and color process it onto a canvas and “voila” four weeks later you get a snapshot of your DNA fingerprint to hang on your wall.

B.T.W. - they also do actual fingerprint art, too.

   

I just read about these differrent cognitive biases during my lunch break. Geesh, because I don’t have enough flies on the windscreen, as it is. All I need is something else causing me to third and fourth or even fifth guess at every moment in parenting (”Is that my tendency to fall back on the Von Restorff Effect or does it really matter that his socks don’t match this morning?”). Here are some of my favorites (desicision making and behavioral biases);

Déformation professionnelle — the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one’s own profession, forgetting any broader point of view.

Post-purchase rationalization — the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.

Mere exposure effect — the tendency for people to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them.

Von Restorff effect — the tendency for an item that “stands out like a sore thumb” to be more likely to be remembered than other items.

And of course, Biases of probability and belief;

Telescoping effect — the effect that recent events appear to have occurred more remotely and remote events appear to have occurred more recently.

Texas sharpshooter fallacy — the fallacy of selecting or adjusting a hypothesis after the data are collected, making it impossible to test the hypothesis fairly.

And of course;

Overconfidence effect — the tendency to overestimate one’s own abilities. (”I don’t need to read the directions to put this grill together, how hard could it be?”)

Ahh, and my favourite Social Biases;

Halo effect — the tendency for a person’s positive or negative traits to “spill over” from one area of their personality to another in others’ perceptions of them (see also physical attractiveness stereotype).

Forer effect (aka Barnum Effect) — the tendency to give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. For example, horoscopes.

Gee, this will certainly help me sort out those problems when my kids get into fights and I need to play the part of Judge and Jury. Actually, I think this slows the whole process for me - either that or I’ll just forget all about this stuff and go back to business as usual - but then again that’s the very definition of the Bias blind spot.

   

Lately, my wife and I have noticed that our dollar isn’t stretching as much as it used too. As a dad, I worry about stuff like this all the live-long day. I worry because I have very little input (none, in fact) on how the prime rate will fluctuate throughout the year. Bernanke never calls me for my opinion. I never get included on those meetings that ultimately decide how the price of gas will change next week or supply restrictions from OPEC will be loosened.

I can only take comfort or actually - discomfort in the facts. I read the articles. I pay attention to the news. I pinch my pennies and my wife cuts coupons, and I love her for it. Here’s my latest scribblings on post-it pads and they are somewhat illuminating. These numbers are based on the three years we’ve lived here in sunny LA:

Price of Gas (average June 2004) = $2.25 /gallon
Price of Gas (now) = $3.55 /gallon
DIFFERENCE = 58% increase

Price of Disposable Diapers (Costco June 2004) = $29.99
Price of Disposable Diapers (Costco now) = $37.99
DIFFERENCE = 26.5% increase

Price of Whole Milk (June 2004) = $2.75/gallon
Price of Whole Milk (now) = $3.79/gallon
DIFFERENCE = 38% increase

Now I take that and look at my salary increase over the same period of time is approximately 10-12% increase. Wow.

Just for giggles, I took a snapshot of Exxon’s Financial Profit/Loss chart for the three years (to the day) as it’s reported on Yahoo Finance. I chose them since they have the most market capital ($467.5 billion to be exact) for the industry. Interesting, right? I was never a finance major in college but if I am reading this chart correctly, they are experiencing an 87% increase in their share price during the same three year period. Hmph.

Price of Exxon Share (May 23rd, 2004) = $43.82
Price of Exxon Share (now) = $82.28
DIFFERENCE = 87% increase

   

THUMBTACK PRESS: So Hip It Hurts

   

Now I have to admit, having my son’s second birthday party here was not our idea, we were inspired by friends who live in Los Feliz. I think it is fair to say that’s how the (kid’s) party train goes, right. Our oldest son’s birthday is in October and we decided to have it at the Travel Town Museum which is located on the north perimeter of Griffith Park (at the junction of the 5 and 134). We were a little worried because the day started out uncharacteristically overcast, but then it magically cleared up just as family and friends started to arrive.

I was over-prepared with collapsable tents and umbrellas and such. I say over-prepared because it was a very pleasant surprise that I was greeted by Travel Town staff that was ready and willing to help me and answer my questions (What?! Really?!), yeah like when does that ever happen? Now we payed like $75 to reserve the gazebo and a deposit of $25 which was promptly returned. I say, “what a bargain!” Seriously. Considering they were ready to help me set up additional banquet tables (part of the package) and get us matches for the BBQ pit.

The long and the short of it is - I would highly recommend this place for a kid’s birthday. The admission is free, as is the parking (which there is ample amount of parking) and there is even one of thos mini-railroads ($2 a ticket) that takes you around the perimeter of the park, which is a great photo-op. There is also a little museum in the center of the park that has some old vehicles and train cars and so forth. But the real treat is the miniature railway setup they have - the thing is huge.

The best part is there are antique train cars that you can rent for birthday parties (and other events I imagine) up to 40 people, how cool is that. I imagine these train cars would be a better bet in the heat of the summer (they’re air conditioned) or perhaps during the winter months.

   

PARENTOGRAPHY is a great place for parents to share information and reviews of family-friendly destinations (i.e. restaurants, playgrounds, parks, museums, attractions, et al.). I just created my own profile and have plans for writing some (hopefully) helpful reviews in the near future. Here’s a list of my reviews thus far.

   

For those of us (a I think it is fair to say there is a lot) who aren’t compelled to operate on our own Etch-a-Sketch but are curious how the lil’ bugger works, here’s a great link. This way you avoid the whole “aluminum-powder-everywhere” scenario.

Click around to see some inspired etch-a-sketch artwork, very impressive.

Etched In Time

Etch-a-Sketch Lollipop Anyone

Flickr: Etch-a-Sketch Group

Etch-A-Sketchist: The Blog

   

Recently I had a post, High-Tech Crime Blotter - CompSTAT where I was basically bragging about how I keep track of all the crime in my neighborhood. I felt like I was doing everything I needed too. I just had my entire yard fenced in (I have more gates then the Suez Canal now) and I’ve added all sorts of landscape lighting to scare away all the Bad Guys.

Great, a lot of good that did for me last night! Now granted, my wife and I are definitely a bit sleep deprived and suffer from some serious Mommy/Daddy Brain (case-in-point, yesterday I mistakenly threw my car keys away - good stuff) and occassionally we forget to lock the car or shut a door. Before going to bed, I have a routine of making sure all doors are closed and locked including the cars.

Evidently, last night I forgot to make sure the SUV was locked and someone rifled through our stuff, they just got some kids CDs - of all things. It could have been worse, they could have broke a window to get in. It could have been even worse, they could have stolen the car. They broke into three other cars on our block. Brazen! Apparently, they have a penchant for audio equipment. Luckily they dropped our registration while rifling through our neighbor’s car - and our neighbors where nice enough to return it to us. The thing that really upsets me though is our other neighbor explained that they had the gas siphoned from both of their cars. With the current cost of gas that represents over $150 dollars worth of gas! Damn it!

Time to get a gas cap lock. And a fake security system yard sign, ‘cuz I don’t have the money for one of those bonafide Brinks or ADT systems.